Ricky Khamis's Blog

BK0013635

Last Week in Review: Inflation news was released Ricky Khamis Team Growth President



Follow Me On:        
Ricky Khamis
President Team Growth
Amerifirst Financial, Inc
Phone: 480-559-9609
Fax: (480) 907-1451
License: Arizona
ricky@ApprovingAZ.com
www.ApprovingAZ.com
  In This Issue  
     
 

Last Week in Review:Inflation news was released...and home loan rates responded.

Forecast for the Week:Earnings season continues, plus look for reports on retail sales, manufacturing, housing and more.

View:Have you ever needed to read an important text for work while you were driving? Now theres an app for that.

 

 
     
  Last Week in Review  
     
 

"Wild thing! You make my heart sing!" The Troggs. And that song lyric is certainly an apt description for the volatility in the markets these days, as the ups and downs have given people things to both sing and scream about. Here's what happened last week...and how home loan rates were impacted.

Inflation news hit the wires, with reports on both the wholesale and consumer levels. The wholesale-measuring Producer Price Index (PPI) showed that prices remained mostly unchanged during March. Remember, inflation hurts the value of fixed investments like Bonds (including Mortgage Bonds, to which home loan rates are tied)...so the lack of inflation on the wholesale side was good news for Bonds and home loan rates.

Also helping Bonds and home loan rates last week was the tame inflation data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The headline reading for March was right in line with estimates. When stripping out volatile food and energy, the Core CPI was also inline with estimates...but the year-over-year number was 2.3%, just slightly higher than the previous reading of 2.2%. While this raises eyebrows a bit, the Fed is still reiterating that inflation remains subdued. That being said, if the Core CPI continues to rise...which is indicative of inflation and as you can see in the chartBonds and home loan rates will have a tough time improving much further, regardless of other factors.

One key factor to keep an eye on is the labor market, as Initial Jobless Claims increased 13,000 to 380,000 for the week ending April 7. This marks the highest level since January, and the second highest reading for 2012. The Fed has acknowledged that job creations are short of their goals. In fact, last week Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen said that weakness in housing, the European debt crisis, and government spending cuts are likely to slow the pace of recovery and expansion. She did state that the Fed has plenty of stimulus tools to use, if economic conditions warrant another round of quantitative easing.

The bottom line is that many factors will impact the direction in which Bonds and home loan rates move in the weeks ahead. The good news is that home loan rates remain near historic lows and now continues to be a great time to purchase or refinance a home. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

 
     
  Forecast for the Week  
     
 

The calendar heats up this week with reports on sales, housing, jobless claims and manufacturing:

  • Right off the bat, Retail Sales will be reported on Monday - and investors will be able to gauge how consumer spending is holding up.
  • In manufacturing news, the Empire State Index out of New York and the Philadelphia Fed Index will be released on Monday and Thursday, respectively.
  • Housing will be in the news this week with Housing Starts and Building Permits for March being reported on Tuesday. Those reports will be followed by the Existing Home Sales report for March, which will be released on Thursday.
  • The weekly Initial Jobless Claims report will be released on Thursday. The report released last week showed that jobless claims rose to their highest level since the week ending January 28. So the markets will be watching this week's release!

In addition to those reports, Corporate Earnings reports may influence the Stock markets - and as we know, the Bond markets usually move in the opposite direction.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving - and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further - a red "candle" means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green "candle" means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, it's been a wild, volatile few weeks in the markets. I'll be monitoring all the news closely to see how the markets and home loan rates respond next.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Apr 13, 2012)
Japanese Candlestick Chart
 
     
  The Mortgage Market Guide View...  
     
 
     
 

No More Texting and DrivingThere's an App for That!

A study by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration found that distracted driving was the leading cause in nearly 450,000 accidents and more than 5,000 highway deaths.

Unfortunately, one of the most distracting elements for drivers today is text-messaging technology. The good news is that technology can also help solve this problem. Services - like DriveSafe.ly - have sprung up that eliminate the need to read text messages AND eliminate the need to respond. That's good news regardless of whether you're receiving personal or business text messages.

Here's how it works...You download an application to your phone. Then, before you get in your car to drive, you simply turn the application on. When you receive a text message, the application actually reads it to youautomaticallyand o ut loud. So there's no need to take your eyes off the road.

Better still... the application automatically sends a reply message stating that you are driving and will respond as soon as you reach a destination that allows you to safely reply.

The application can be used on a variety of phones and there are even different plans - including a free version of DriveSafe.ly as well as family and business plans.

If you receive a lot of text messages while driving, this could be one of the most important safety steps you do this year. Take a few minutes to check it out.

After all, this simple application could save your life or the life of someone you know.

Economic Calendar for the Week of April 16 - April 20

Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. April 16
08:30
Retail Sales
Mar
0.3%
 
1.1%
HIGH
Mon. April 16
08:30
Retail Sales ex-auto
Mar
0.3%
 
0.9%
HIGH
Mon. April 16
08:30
Empire State Index
Apr
17.5
 
20.2
Moderate
Tue. April 17
08:30
Housing Starts
Mar
700K
 
698K
Moderate
Tue. April 17
08:30
Building Permits
Mar
710K
 
717K
Moderate
Tue. April 17
09:15
Capacity Utilization
Mar
78.5%
 
78.4%
Moderate
Tue. April 17
09:15
Industrial Production
Mar
0.2%
 
0.0%
Moderate
Thu. April 19
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
4/14
375K
 
380K
Moderate
Thu. April 19
10:00
Existing Home Sales
Mar
4.62M
 
4.59M
Moderate
Thu. April 19
10:00
Philadelphia Fed Index
Apr
10.3
 
12.5
HIGH
     

 

The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only and is not intended for consumer distribution. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated.   Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email.   You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.


You received this email as a result of your ongoing business relationship with Ricky Khamis. While beneficial to a wide audience, this information is also commercial in nature and it may contain advertising materials.

 

 www.BarrierBreakerCoaching.com 

 FB IN   Tweet  Google YT 


 Instagram

 

Ricky Khamis
NMLS 173141 | LO-0911814 | CA-DOC173141
Branch Manager | Corporate Office
Arizona and California CE Instructor

Email: Rick@amerifirst.us

480-344-1900 office
602-758-7425 mobile
480-339-1615 fax

AMERIFIRST FINANCIAL, INC.
NMLS 145368 

1550 E. McKellips Rd, Suite 117
Mesa, AZ 85203
480-344-1900
1-866-276-12974
BK0013635

 

Amerifirst Financial Disclosure-  The opinions expressed here are the personal opinions of Ricky Khamis.  Content published here is not read or approved by Amerifirst Financial before it is posted and does not necessarily  represent the views and opinions of Amerifirst Financial.

Comment balloon 0 commentsRicky Khamis • April 16 2012 08:27AM
Last Week in Review: Inflation news was released Ricky Khamis Team…
share
Follow Me On: Ricky Khamis President Team… more
Todays Mortgage Market Update - Ricky Khamis FHA/VA | Conventional |…
share
FNMA 30-Year: 3. 0 Coupon: Previous Close 100. 578 Open 100. 266 Change -0. 313 3. 5 Coupon: Previous Close 103. 469 Open 103. 250 Change -0. 219 4. 0 Coupon: Previous Close 105. 469 Open 105. 313 Change -0. 156 … more
FHA | Conventional | JUMBO | USDA | ARM Arizona Mortgage Rates
share
Financial Reasons to Buy There are a number of personal and emotional reasons to buy a home… more
Online Magazine by Ricky Khamis, FHA Arizona Mortgage
share
Follow Me On: Ricky Khamis President Team Growth Amerifirst Financial, Inc Phone: 480-559-9609 Fax: (480) 907-1451 License: Arizona ricky… more
This Week In Mortgage Land
share
Send to a Friend Follow Me On: … more
View:The IRS is warning people about a new tax scam - Ricky Khamis
share
Send to a Friend Follow Me On: Ricky Khamis … more
Mortgage Update Weekly - Ricky Khamis Fha, VA, USDA, Jumbo Loan Expert
share
Send to a Friend Follow Me On: … more
Value of Being Seen - Temecula California with Jason Gordon
share
Jason Gordon and I were honored with an invitation to teach my class The Value of Being Seen on Social Media by The Career Compass The Career Compass puts on a very classy event full of must have information in today's Real Estate Market,… more
Monthly News Letter by Ricky Khamis
share
Follow Me On: Ricky Khamis President Team Growth Amerifirst Financial, Inc Phone: 480-559-9609 Fax: (480) 907-1451 License: Arizona ricky… more
FUNDING FEE CHANGES EFFECTIVE OCTOBER 1, 2011
share
http://www. benefits. va. gov/homeloans/circulars/26_11_12. pdf 1. Purpose: This circular announces changes in funding fees for Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) loans closed on or after October 1, 2011. 2. Fee Changes &… more