Ricky Khamis's Blog

BK0013635

The Khamis Team Weekly Mortgage Newsletter

Mortgage rates stepped higher last week, touching a high point not seen since 2013. The continued upward pressure on rates stems from expectations of sustained economic growth coupled with rising inflationary pressures. While the first estimate of GDP for 2018’s Q1 was lower than the final quarter of 2017, it was higher than analysts’ expectations. For a number of years, GDP has been low in the first quarter and bounced higher in the second. If this holds true for 2018, we are very likely to see mortgage rates continuing to move upward, adding pressure on the Fed to increase rates.

This week is absolutely packed with critical economic data. Both ISM Indices, PCE Prices, and the monthly employment report are due, along with the next meeting of the Federal Reserve. While the Fed is unlikely to increase rates, any shift in policy or comments that appear more hawkish will likely send rates upward. While another poor showing in the employment data is not expected, a second, weak month in new jobs could help temper any upward pressure from other strong data points.

This Week's Top Economic Reports and Events

Report/Event

Date

Prior

Est

Impact

PCE Prices (core)

4/30

0.2%

0.3%

Significant

With inflation running right below the Fed’s “speed limit,” an unexpected jump to 0.3% or 0.4% would pressure rates upward quickly.

ISM Manufacturing Index

5/1

59.3

58.5

Significant

Even a small downtick in this index does not take manufacturing out of a strong growth position, but rates might feel a little downward pressure.

FOMC Policy Announcement

5/2

 

 

Significant

Should the Fed surprise the market with a rate increase, all interest rates will likely step upward, but would likely flatten out for a while.

ISM Services Index

5/3

58.8

58.3

Moderate

The service side of the economy continues to power along nicely, and another reading above 58.5 could help pressure mortgage rates higher.

Nonfarm Payrolls

5/4

103K

190K

Significant

Both last month’s number and the previous month adjustments will be important. If they all add up to a strong average, rates will keep going up.

Quick Article

Getting the Best Price for Your Home: Sell in May

According to research from ATTOM Data Solutions, the month of May is the best time to maximize your sales price. Analyzing the sale of 14.7 million homes from 2011 to 2017, the researchers found that the largest premiums, at 5.9%, above estimated market value, occurred in May. However, the very best day to sell your home was June 28, with an average 9.1% seller premium. Of course, all real estate is local so be sure to work with a smart real estate professional.

Weekly Trivia Question and Answer

Beginning his career as a private and ending as a general, Chuck Yeager became the first man to break what in 1947?

 

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Ricky Khamis
NMLS 173141 | LO-0911814 | CA-DOC173141
Branch Manager | Corporate Office
Arizona and California CE Instructor

Email: Rick@amerifirst.us

480-344-1900 office
602-758-7425 mobile
480-339-1615 fax

AMERIFIRST FINANCIAL, INC.
NMLS 145368 

1550 E. McKellips Rd, Suite 117
Mesa, AZ 85203
480-344-1900
1-866-276-12974
BK0013635

 

Amerifirst Financial Disclosure-  The opinions expressed here are the personal opinions of Ricky Khamis.  Content published here is not read or approved by Amerifirst Financial before it is posted and does not necessarily  represent the views and opinions of Amerifirst Financial.

Comment balloon 0 commentsRicky Khamis • April 30 2018 05:35PM
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